Rain totals shift outlook for crops

This is the kind of a year that has turned many would-be farmers into car salesmen, dentists, lawyers and other professionals.

Things looked so good down on the farm back in June. Grain prices were high, really high. The rains were timely and plentiful, and farmers were looking at bin-busting harvests.

"For Maryland farmers, things look great," Kevin McNew, a managing partner of Go Grain LLC, a commodity research firm in Bozeman, Mont., and an adjunct professor at the University of Maryland, said in late June. "It could be their best year ever."

McNew is singing a different song these days, and for good reason.

Despite a lot of hard work, grain farmers will likely remember 2008 as an average or maybe even below-average year. Grain prices have dropped measurably since June and field crops have suffered from a lack of rain.

Corn stalks throughout the upper Eastern Shore, and in some other parts of the state, show signs of a lack of rain during a critical part of the growing season. Some fields look as if they will be a total loss.

According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's latest crop estimate, state farmers are now expected to harvest an average of 126 bushels of corn from each acre planted. This is down four bushels from the government's August estimate.

The government report is based on field conditions as of Aug. 1.

Despite the anticipated drop in production, farmers are expected to harvest more corn this year than last. The 2007 corn crop suffered from a severe drought, and yields averaged only 103 bushels per acre.

With 410,000 acres of corn expected to be harvested this year, total production is now estimated at 51.7 million bushels.

Even with the welcome rains this month from Tropical Storm Hanna, the state soybean crop is still suffering. The USDA's Crop Reporting Service is forecasting an average soybean yield of 29 bushels per acre.

This is down five bushels from last month's estimate and just slightly better than last year's average of 27 bushels per acre.

The quality of the soybeans ranged pretty evenly from very poor to good, though the highest percentage was rated as good, according to a government report.

Corn and soybeans are the major grain crops in Maryland. The vast majority of the grain is purchased by Eastern Shore poultry companies and made into chicken feed.

Maryland's peach harvest was not seriously affected by the shortage of mid-summer rains. The USDA is forecasting a harvest of 4.3 million pounds this year, compared with 3.3 million pounds last year.

Apple growers are not as lucky. Production is expected to total 26 million pounds, down from 33 million pounds last year.

The production of summer potatoes, grown primarily on the Eastern Shore, is forecast at 783,000 hundredweight, down from 960,000 hundredweight last year.

Although the Maryland price of corn has dropped to about $5.60 a bushel from $8 earlier this year, McNew said, "That is still a good price and farmers can't complain."

They can complain, however, about the cost of production.

"The cost of producing an acre of corn or soybeans is going through the roof this year," said McNew. "Big-ticket items, like fertilizer, have really shot up this year because of their connection to natural gas.

"Cost of planting corn has nearly doubled this year," McNew said. "It was about $1,000 an acre. Where we used to think that the farmer's break-even point was $2.50 to $2.70 [per bushel] for corn, it is now in the neighborhood of $4.50 to $5."

Based on his latest assessment of production and market prices, McNew is now saying that 2008 "could still be a pretty good year for farmers."

"They could forward contract corn at $7 or $8 a bushel the past few months," he said. "You are not going to contract 100 percent of your crop, but a lot of farmers sold 25 percent to 30 percent of their corn at those prices.

"The bottom line," he added, "is farmers should be profitable this year at the prices and yields we have been seeing."

The USDA estimates that corn production for the entire country will total 12.1 billion bushels. This is down 2 percent from the August estimate and 8 percent below last year's harvest.

Corn yields are expected to average 152.3 bushels per acre, down 2.7 bushels from last month's estimate but 1.2 bushels above last year. If realized, the corn yield will be the second-highest on record.

The U.S. production of soybeans this year is expected at 2.93 billion bushels, down 1 percent from the government's August estimate but 13 percent ahead of last year's production. If realized, this will be the fourth-largest soybean harvest on record.

Related topic galleries: Agricultural Research and Technology, Tropical Storms, Tropical Storm Hanna, August

• DIRECTOR RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT

• DRIVER - CDL

• COMMUNITY RELATIONS DIRECTOR

• DIRECTOR RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT

• DRIVERS

• View all Top Jobs